Public Transport

There is only enough oil in the world to last another 41 years at the present rate of consumption. We might be saved by nuclear fusion, which we are told is only 25 years away from being a viable alternative to fossil fuels. However, we have been told every year since 1965 that fusion reactors will be viable 25 years later, so it might be a bit risky to rely on it. If the wait for fusion electricity were to be, say, 50 years instead, then it might come too late. Naturally, as the price of oil rises, so more and more expensive fuels will come to the market. Conventional nuclear power is already nearly as cheap as gas and oil, and a part of its cost is an attempt to recoup some of the costs laid out in the research that made it possible. Nowadays, the price is (in Britain) required to reflect the estimated cost of decommissioning spent power stations. This includes the supposed cost of storing plutonium, one of the biproducts. Plutonium itself could be used to produce more energy, in so-called breeder reactors. Research in the latter was abandonned about 20 years ago, and could be reinstated. The advantage of nuclear power is that no green-house gases are produced. The disadvantage is that small vehicles like cars and planes cannot be powered by nuclear power; it is only suitable for large ships. Both fusion, and uranium-based nuclear power, are ideal for producing electricity. Thus, electric cars (and bicycles) could be the answer. Japan, China and others are already producing practical battery-driven bicycles, with storage batteries that can be refilled from the mains. These batteries cost quite a lot, in energy as well as money, as does their disposal when damaged, but it is a start.

Another possibility is to use hydrogen as the car-fuel. This has been developed by HUT (Helsinki University of Technology) into a practical working transport system. The hydrogen is stored in blocks of titanium, and of course is burnt to produce water-vapour. The process is reversed when the canister is recharged, so it is entirely neutral to the environment. Water vapour is one of the green-house gases, but this is not a big problem, since the vapour might be condensed to water by a cooling system at the exhaust. In Finland, there is a bit of help with the project from the Government, in that the Post Office has agreed to use hydrogen for its delivery-vans. But is there enough titanium in the world for everyone to have such a car?

Oil from wood and coal can be made now at about double the cost of taxed petrol. Coal stocks are enormous, and might give the world some time to adapt. The use of coal is irreversible, and produces greenhouse gases. The oil from wood is thick and black, and smells strongly of wood smoke. This fuel counts as renewable, but there is not enough wood in the world to support everyone: the wood is not renewed until the tree has regrown. Wind power can provide some help, as can solar panels and energy conservation. In the UK there is a government grant to cover some of the cost of the installation of solar panels on the roofs of private houses, and also for basic insulation. The panels might be simply water warmed by the sun, which reduces the energy needed to heat it further; or the panels might be photovoltaic, which produce electricity even in cloudy daylight.

I wish that the environmentallists who object so strongly to wind farms and nuclear energy would talk to the environmentallists who worry about global warming (or are they the same people?).

A major contribution to energy needs might eventually be due to the use of biomass; fast growing trees such as willow and poplar can be processed at home and burnt for heating. For transport, we need a more compressed form of energy. Gasohol, an alcohol made from crops such as soya and maize, is very promising. This is renewable, provided that no insecticides or fertilizer made from oil is used. In this case, the "greener" crops will be the GM varieties that do not need insecticides. Cars can be modified to run quite well on gasohol, which is common in Brazil for example. One danger is that the growing market for gasohol will lead to the destruction of the rest of the Amazon rain forest in order to make room for such crops.

These projects will become viable as the price of oil rises. However, the rapid increase in prosperity in India and China over the next few years will lead to a rise in the depletion rate of oil, as more and more people will be able to afford cars. Between them, these two countries have about 3 times the population of USA, Europe and Japan put together. It can be safely predicted that most people born in the 21 st century will not be able to afford private motor transport. It is thus a good idea to expand public transport, so that it serves the whole population. This should be done in conjunction with town and country planning, so that the system can be efficient and convenient.